Strategic scenario model

Sudan–Libya Strategic Balance

Adjust the force balance to estimate the illustrative likelihood that Sudan could defeat organized resistance and sustain control of unified Libya.

Scenario inputs

Includes the updated missile inventories.

Sudanese attack force

Personnel soldiers Main battle tanks Fighter aircraft Bombers Attack drones Ballistic missiles Cruise missiles

Libyan defense

Personnel soldiers Main battle tanks Fighter aircraft Attack drones Cruise missiles Scud missiles Integrated air defense 0–10 Terrain and urban resistance 0–10

Sudanese logistics 0–10 4 / 10 Sudanese cohesion 0–10 5 / 10 Foreign support to Libya 0–10 4 / 10

Missile totals represent nominal inventories only. Readiness, accuracy, survivability, launch infrastructure, interception, escalation, and political effects are not modeled individually.

Estimated outcome

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estimated probability of conquest

Calculating…

Invasion capability —

Defensive difficulty —

Model notes

Ground forces support territorial control.
Aircraft, drones, and missiles increase strike capacity.
Air defense reduces the effective value of attacking aircraft.
Logistics and cohesion strongly affect sustained occupation.

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Sudan–Libya Strategic Balance Calculator

what is Sudan–Libya Strategic Balance Calculator